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Tag: recession

UK ducks recession with weakest annual growth since 2010

UK ducks recession with weakest annual growth since 2010

Business
The UK has dodged a recession despite seeing the biggest year-on-year slowdown in nearly a decade.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the 0.3% growth for the latest quarter signalled the economy "slowing" as UK GDP had grown at 1% for the same period in 2018. It said this represented the weakest annual rate since 2010.However, the expansion meant the UK avoided plunging into a recession, defined by two successive quarters of economic decline.It shrank by 0.2% in the three months to June 2019. Advertisement Despite this, the economy was slightly weaker than both market expectations and the Bank of England's latest forecasts, which had pointed to 0.4% growth for the period between July and September...
UK economy facing ‘heightened risk of recession’

UK economy facing ‘heightened risk of recession’

Business
The UK's economy may have tipped into recession following a downturn in the dominant service sector, according to closely-watched figures.The IHS Markit/CPS purchasing managers' index for services fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in September. The 50 level divides growth from expansion.It suggests the economy shrank 0.1% in the three months to September, after a 0.2% fall in the previous quarter.Some experts urged caution, as official data last month eased recession fears.Combined with even weaker manufacturing and construction purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) earlier this week, September's all-sector PMI sank to 48.8 from 49.7. This was its lowest since the month after the referendum decision to leave the EU in June 2016, and before that 2009."Coming on...
UK’s economy back in growth, though recession risk remains

UK’s economy back in growth, though recession risk remains

Business
By James Sillars, business reporter The UK economy recorded growth of 0.3% in July, boosting hopes that a pre-Brexit recession can be avoided.According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK output bounced back from zero growth the previous month thanks to a partial recovery in the dominant services sector. However, the number-crunchers warned of a weaker underlying picture for services, which account for 80% of the economy, across the remainder of 2019. ...
Trump plays down fears of US recession

Trump plays down fears of US recession

Business
Donald Trump has tried to reassure markets about the risk of the US falling into a recession by saying the economy is doing "tremendously well".The US president said he did not see a recession - usually defined as when an economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters.White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow also said there was "no recession in sight".Last week, financial markets indicated a recession could be on the way.This is because it became cheaper for the US government to borrow for 10 years, rather than two. This "inverted yield curve" often comes before a recession, or at least a significant slowdown in economic growth.Are markets signalling that a recession is due?However, speaking to reporters on Sunday, Mr Trump said: "I don't see a recession. ...
Bond market close to sending biggest recession signal yet

Bond market close to sending biggest recession signal yet

Finance
Scott Olson | Getty ImagesAs Wall Street economists up the odds for a recession in the coming year, the bond market is sending its own scary warning about an economic downturn.Various parts of the yield curve have been inverted, but the traditionally watched 2-year to 10-year spread looks set to invert any day now, with the curve at its flattest level since 2007.The 10-year yield, at its low yield of 1.64% Monday came less than 6 basis points above the 2-year yield, which was at 1.58% in afternoon trading. The spread broke below 10 basis points last week. An inverted curve simply means a shorter-term interest rate is higher than the longer-term one that it is being compared too, and that inversion has been a reliable recession signal. "It's the whole idea that the Fed is making a mistake. ...